This will appear in the Bernice Banner, Bernice, Louisiana, USA the week of 7/20/2015

Last week witnessed a very significant agreement between two enemies as Iran and a coalition of Western Countries agreed to a treaty that is supposed to keep the Iranian nuclear program in check and thus prevent the production of a nuclear bomb. In exchange for the guarantees of nuclear bomb development secession, economic sanctions on Iran will be lifted. Whether this agreement is good or bad will be debated on Fox, CNN and the major networks until the treaty is finally ratified by Congress and signed by the President. One thing is certain, it will be passed and it will be years before we realize the final outcome of the agreement.
If in future years Iran has covertly used the time available to them to develop a nuclear weapon and has enjoyed the economic benefits of the lifted sanctions and has rearmed via lifting of military sales sanctions; we will have failed and the world will be a dangerous place to hand over to our children and grandchildren.
If in the future, Iran lives up to the terms of the treaty and uses the freed assets and thus builds its’ economy via the lifted sanctions; we could well see a thawing of tensions. “Death to Americans” could be replaced with “Welcome to Americans”. Economic and cultural exchanges could take the place of adversarial rhetoric.
It will take years to see how this unfolds. Victory laps can be taken at this time but only to the extent of getting a treaty signed. The final lap will come when we are certain of peace.
There are going to be some collateral effects to the treaty and some are good and some are not so good. Unfortunately we have painted ourselves into some corners that we will need to manage to insure that the consequences are not grave.
Saudi Arabia, Dubai and the other Members of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait have been very close allies of the United States. Contrary to some beliefs, these countries have been supportive of America and have been loyal trading partners. Each one is very wealthy and can develop their own nuclear programs. Up until this time they have been content to using fossil fuels for their energy requirements. This may soon end. If Iran is building their nuclear program and eventually could build a nuclear weapon, why would our Mid-East allies not do the same? America could not challenge these countries. They are our friends, they can use the same reasoning that Iran has used to build its’ program and we have no recourse to keep them from nuclear development expansion in the Mid-East. Unfortunately our guarantee to provide security to these countries in place of their developing a nuclear program will fall on deaf ears. Much of the confidence in America has been lost over the last few years.
Within a year of sanctions being lifted on Iran, an additional one million barrels of oil a day will be placed on the market. Iran will be selling all that it can and the market will set the price of the crude. With this spare capacity entering the oil market the price will possibly fall. If the price falls and with extremely high drilling and production costs in many of our domestic oil field, we will see less drilling and producing in America. This will be of importance to our own oil development in North Central Louisiana.
For the first time since Desert Storm, America’s Mid-East Allies and Israel are in agreement with each other. All agree that a treaty allowing Iran to develop its’ nuclear program is bad for the region. It will be interesting to see if there are any agreements that come into place between these two sets of hated enemies. How ironic that the concern with Iran leads to pacts between Israel and its’ Arab neighbors.


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